Entering the 2024 Mutua Madrid Open as the top seed for the first time in his career is Jannik Sinner. He’s been in exceptional form this year, winning three titles, including his maiden Grand Slam victory at the Australian Open. Sinner also claimed the Rotterdam and Miami Open titles.
Sinner’s only red dirt appearance this season was in Monte-Carlo, where he was defeated by eventual champion Stefanos Tsitsipas in the semifinals. With a current win/loss record of 25-2, Sinner is looking to regain his winning momentum in Madrid and close the distance to Novak Djokovic’s top spot in the men’s rankings. In this article, we examine the Italian’s projected path to the 2024 Mutua Madrid Open final.
As a seeded player, Sinner will bypass the first round. He is expected to face compatriot and friend Lorenzo Sonego in the second round. Although Sonego hasn’t had the best start to 2024 with a 6-12 record, his strongest performance was reaching the quarterfinals at the Grand Prix Hassan II in Casablanca, Morocco. Sinner currently leads their head-to-head record 4-0.
In the third round, Sinner could meet Jordan Thompson if they both advance through their second-round matches. Thompson has already seen success this season, securing the title in Los Cabos. While the two players haven’t faced each other professionally, Sinner is favored to win.
Sinner’s potential fourth-round opponent could be Karen Khachanov, who has a 15-7 win/loss record this season and won the Qatar Open. Sinner leads their head-to-head 3-1 and is likely to win based on their history and current forms.
An exciting potential quarterfinal clash between Sinner and Casper Ruud could materialize in Madrid. Ruud recently won the Barcelona Open, his crowning achievement thus far. Sinner currently leads their head-to-head with two wins. While both players have a shot in the encounter, Ruud may have a slight advantage due to his current form and record on the red dirt.
In the semifinals, a challenging matchup awaits Sinner if he and Stefanos Tsitsipas both make it through their respective quarterfinals. Tsitsipas leads their head-to-head 6-3 and is likely to challenge Sinner in a closely watched encounter.
Carlos Alcaraz could be Sinner’s final opponent in the Madrid Open title match. They have faced each other eight times in their emerging rivalry, with each boasting four victories. Alcaraz, however, won their most recent meeting at the BNP Paribas Open. This potential blockbuster match would be difficult to predict, but Sinner may have a slight edge since Alcaraz is recovering from a right arm injury.
